CFB A Deeper Look: AUB @ FLA | IOWA @ MICH | UTST @ LSU
Happy Saturday! First off, good luck to everyone out there!
Today we wanted to take a deeper look into a few games, one of which we’ve already talked about in this week’s podcast.
These picks are not a part of our official Pick 3 record, but we wanted to share our thoughts and research, nonethelesss. Let us know what you think in the comments at the bottom of this page!
Here we go:
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Michigan Wolverines (12 PM Eastern)
Spread: Michigan -4
Over / Under: 48
Iowa v Michigan could be a repeat of the Michigan Wisconsin game. Iowa hasn’t lost a fumble in three games and the turnover bug has hammered Michigan this year. Iowa is averaging 5 yards per carry so they are going to try and wear Michigan down.
The question is can Shae Patterson and Michigan get anything going offensively to put pressure on Iowa to get out of their comfort zone. However if they do, Iowa has been careful with the ball in the passing game as well. Iowa QB Nate Stanley hasn’t thrown a pick in 136 passes dating back to last year.
If Iowa’s defense can force a few turnovers, which Harbaugh’s bunch has been prone to do, it could be another long day in the Big House.
My expectation is a lot of Surrender Cobras from the Maze and Blue faithful. Iowa +4
Utah St. Aggies @ LSU Tigers (12 PM Eastern)
Spread: LSU -27.5
Over / Under: 73
Don’t sleep on this game. To the untrained eye, this looks like a run of the mill LSU blowout. But as my man Lee Corso would say “Not So Fast”!
Utah St. has a heartbeat. They’ve showed the ability to control the game on offense this year against a decent Wake Forest team and dominated their lesser competition. This is mostly due to a serviceable passing attack.
The Aggies defense has not been great, but it hasn’t been terrible either. I expect the Aggie defense will have a long day, but if LSU gets lazy, look for them to make a play or two.
On the other side, LSU’s offense has been clicking on all cylinders. Expect more of the same in this battle. I expect LSU to score in the 40s in this game. The defense, on the other hand, is a different story. I still don’t believe they have adapted to the quick strike offense, so this could lead to a few scoring opportunities for the Aggies.
I believe this spread is a bit too big. I think Utah State will muster enough offense and just enough defense to keep this one within the number. Utah State +27.5
Thoughts on the Total:
I hate over / unders, but this one looks high. I think this game ends somewhere in the 40’s for lsu and the 20’s for the Aggies. If you’re just dying to gamble, I’d say go with the under and sweat it out!
Auburn @ Florida (3:30 PM Eastern)
Spread: Florida +2.5
Over / Under: 48.5
Auburn might be a tad overrated because they beat Texas A&M when we thought they were good. The Oregon win isn’t looking as good to me, and they all but laid an egg against Tulane.
On the other hand, Florida might be the worst 4-0 schedule outside of maybe Alabama or Clemson. Having said all that, the Tennessee defense picked off Florida 2 times in that beat down. Let that sink in.
An attempt at Devil’s Advocate against myself:
Auburn, until last week, has lived and died with the run. Last week, most of their offense came from Bo Nix through the air. He was also the leading rusher, but the passing game was on fire. Was that a fluke? Maybe.
The Mississippi State pass defense is atrocious. Anyone who can throw the ball – obviously not talking to you Kentucky – has lit it up on them. This is including the perennial power that is LA-Lafayette – so to be objective, we probably have to remove last week’s offensive performance from our Auburn sample.
The Florida pass defense is very opportunistic. Some teams have definitely put up yards, but they’ve had a 3 INT game and a couple 2 INT games. This tells me they are aggressive. That may create a challenge for Bo Nix. But, knowing what I know about Malzahn, he may be able to take advantage of the aggressive secondary with some TD plays – if the team can execute perfectly in those situations.
So, taking the Florida pass defense into consideration, we should assume Auburn will need to run the ball to have steady success.
The Auburn defense – I don’t need to say much. The defensive line is disruptive! Opposing QBs haven’t had much time to operate thus far. To make matters worse, it’s hard to run on these Tigers.
Finally, let’s get to the my key of the game. The Florida rush defense looks vulnerable. Backs averaging 4 and 5 yards per carry and sometimes upwards of 10 have been the norm with opposing teams, including Towson, Tennessee, Kentucky. To me, that’s a recipe for disaster.
This one looks like a “Shark Trap” (I think I just made that up). The line is so close it leads people to give Florida more credit than they deserve. The Tigers cover in the swamp. Auburn -2.5
Auburn at Florida could be a defensive showdown. It will be the best defense Bo Nix has faced in the toughest environment. How does he react to an early pick or Florida taking the lead? On the flip side, Florida’s Kyle Trask hasn’t seen anything like Derrick Brown or Marlon Davidson on a defensive front. This game will come down to which QB can keep his composure against a great defense and limit mistakes.
Not to be underestimated, Mullen had a garbage record against top ranked opponents at Mississippi State and so far at Florida. Does that trend continue?
Thoughts on the Total:
Pettey is looking for a defensive battle and Michael thinks Florida will have some trouble putting points on the board. If we were forced to pick we would lean toward the under 48.5.
Episode 8 – “On the Money”
We’re back with this week’s edition of Week Zero! In addition to your favorite segments, we bring in something new with 3 NFL picks from a local Guru. Also, don’t miss our first College Football Gameday Update Article.
In this week’s episode we talk about the upcoming week in college football as always, more NFL, a touching story about sportsmanship in women’s lacrosse in our “All the Feels” segment, another “Saturday Morning Cocktail” that might not be a cocktail, and an interesting trend with gambling spreads this week. And don’t worry, as always we will bring you our Pick 3 and the Darwin Life Champion.
If you have questions or comments, visit our facebook page or tweet us. Be sure to follow us on your favorite podcast app. Links to our show on your favorite podcast app are available at weekzerosports.com.